Identifying Key Predictors of Success and Failure on the Exit Exam at the FDRE Technical and Vocational Training Institute

Abstract

The national exit examination serves as a critical quality assurance mechanism in Ethiopian higher education, yet persistently low and fluctuating pass rates at the FDRE Technical and Vocational Training (FTVT) Institute raise concerns about graduate competency and institutional effectiveness, necessitating the identification of specific predictors of examination performance to develop targeted interventions. This mixed-method study identified key predictors of success and failure on the national exit

examination at the FTVT Institute, examining academic, psychological, institutional, and preparation-related factors through quantitative analysis of data from 1,836 students who took the exit examination between 2023-2025 using Mann-Whitney U tests, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, and Spearman's rank correlation, complemented by qualitative data collected through semi

structured interviews and focus group discussions with students, trainers, and faculty deans analyzed using thematic analysis. The findings revealed that academic preparedness (p = .004) and methods of exit examination preparation (p = .003) significantly discriminated between pass and fail groups, with Spearman's correlation demonstrating a moderate positive relationship between CGPA and exit examination results (rₛ = .456, p < .001), explaining 20.8% of the variance, while psychological and personal factors (p = .419) and institutional and training support (p = .870) showed no statistical difference between groups; however, qualitative findings revealed widespread student anxiety, inadequate resources, disorganized tutorials, technical failures, and systemic institutional deficiencies affecting all students. The study concludes that a dual-track intervention strategy is required, combining targeted academic remediation and preparation skill-building with psychological support and systemic institutional improvements, and recommends implementation of early preparation, structured tutorial sessions, mock examinations, counselling services, reliable technology, curriculum alignment with exam blueprints, and competency-based assessment to improve exit examination outcomes at the FTVT Institute.